Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Focus on Middle East, IEA Release

Kanoko Matsuyama

Thu, October 15, 2026 at 6:03 PM EDT 2 min read

(Bloomberg) — Oil was set for a second weekly advance as increasing Middle East supply risks weighed against a fresh release of emergency reserves.

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West Texas Intermediate traded below $98 a barrel, after adding 3% on Thursday, while Brent settled near $106. Uncertainty around a recovery to physical flows from the Persian Gulf has increased, with US Central Command on Thursday confirming that a container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz this week was struck by an Iranian projectile.

WTI has climbed more than 6% this week, outpacing gains in Brent to narrow the gap between the two benchmarks, as a reduction in the cost to ship American barrels buoyed demand. The cost of sending a typical cargo of US crude from the Gulf Coast to Rotterdam has shrunk about 12% over the past week, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London.

International Energy Agency member nations pledged to complete the release of 100 million barrels of oil that are still outstanding from an intervention in March, after lobbying from US officials. President Donald Trump has been working to tame high gas and soaring diesel prices at home, with rising energy costs stemming from the US war on Iran among key voter concerns ahead of midterm elections next month.

“The conflict is likely to escalate,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a note, increasing their odds of an intensification to 65% from 35%. “The standoff status quo is no longer sustainable for the US.”

Separately, US crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels last week, the biggest drop since February, in part due to shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias, strong refinery runs and exports, according to the Energy Information Administration. Distillates stockpiles fell by 2.5 million barrels to a fresh seasonal low.

–With assistance from Mia Gindis.