Chart of the Week: SONAR Regional Tender Rejection Rates SONAR: STRI.URMW, STRI.URNW, STRI.URSE, STRI.URSW, STRI.URNE

National tender rejections have eased to about 13.8% over the past two weeks, but that average hides a market splitting in two. The Northwest region’s rejection rate hit 20.27% on Oct. 8. That’s more than triple the 6.2% it posted a year ago and the highest of any region. The Midwest sits right behind it at 18.61%. Every other region falls between 7.6% and 13.1% and is holding flat or drifting lower.

The two regional leaders are getting there in different ways. The Northwest is in a sudden, reefer-driven surge that began in August. The Midwest has been the tightest large region for most of 2026 and isn’t letting up.

The Northwest flipped in eight weeks

The Northwest spent most of 2026 as one of the loosest regions in the country, with rejections between 6% and 9% from January through July. That changed in August. Rejections nearly doubled during the month and have climbed almost every week since.

The split by equipment type tells the story. Northwest reefer rejections have averaged 41% so far in October, up from about 17% in July and 16% last October. Van rejections are under 5%. Reefer tender volume is up 65% since July and 35% year over year, while van volume is down 11% from last year.

Harvest freight meets a thinner fleet

The timing points to the fall produce season. Apple and potato harvests in Washington, Oregon and Idaho ramp up from late August through October, and that freight moves almost entirely in reefers. The same pattern appeared last year, but it came later and was smaller: Northwest rejections didn’t break 10% until mid-November and peaked near 13%.

A bigger crop doesn’t explain the difference. USDA estimates Washington’s 2026 apple crop at 176.2 million bushels, down 2% from last year, and the national crop is down 7% (The Packer).

The Midwest is a different case. Its rejection rate has held near or above 15% since February and is at 18.6% now, compared with 7.6% last October. Tender volume in the region is up about 10% year over year, outpacing the 8% national gain. Unlike in the Northwest, the tightness spans equipment types. Midwest van rejections are near 15%, about two and a half times last year’s level, and reefer rejections are near 29%, up from 15%.

What it means

The Northwest spike is largely a product of regional demand volatility combined with national capacity being meaningfully lower compared to last year. For most of the year, the region generates relatively little outbound freight. Carriers plan for that by limiting contract commitments that would leave their trucks stuck in a market they can’t easily get out of. When harvest freight arrives, there isn’t enough capacity in place to cover it. This effect should fade as the harvest winds down this winter.